Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Jul 09 2004 06:51 pm

The market jumped higher at the open, apparently due to some good words
from GE.  But then it was flat, with a slight sag the rest of the day.
Closing prices were up only modestly, though as you can see below the
trend is still downward, and volume fell to -9% below average.  It shows
there wasn't much conviction to the buying.  I think as much as anything
it was by investors hoping this close to the 200-day moving average will
turn out to be "cheap" when prices bounce up.  "If" would be a better
word, and it doesn't look likely to me.

The Senate's report on CIA intelligence leading to the Iraq War was all
about one of the topics I often discuss here: epistemology.  It appears
the CIA should have more often asked itself: what to we really know and
how do we know it.  They seem to have heard what they wanted to hear,
agreed with each other all their analyses were right, and ignored
everything else.  That's not intelligence, in statecraft or investing.

I know a Bull Market when the 5% exponential moving average of the daily
change in closing price is around 2; when the moving averages are all
rising and their slopes are increasing; when the shorter term averages
are higher, rising faster than the longer term averages; when the market
shrugs-off bad news; when positive days occur with notably higher volume
and negative days on much lower volume; when the Oscillator is above 200
or so and the Summation Index still has room to climb.  When I see any
of that, I'll be sure to let you know.

The 5% exponential is around -1; 20-day moving average is oscillating
downward and the oscillations are growing, the 50-day moving average is
flat and the 200-day moving average is flattening; in recent times the
20-day moving average has been below the longer 50-day; news is moving
the market; positive days are occuring on lower volume and negative days
on higher volume; volume as a whole has been falling; the Oscillator is
barely positive, today, and while the Summation Index isn't as high as
it was last year, that's in part because it still has to recover from
the 1990's Bull Market.  This isn't a Bear Market either.  Grumpy.
That's a good word.

I'm looking at the numbers, and I'm not being swayed by imaginary goals.
Nor am I being influenced by the media, who seem more enthusiastic.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      <___      _|__      _|__      __|_      ___>     07/02
 _<__      |___      _|__      _|__      __|_      ___>     07/06
 __<_      |___      _|__      __|_      __|_      ___>     07/07
 _<__      >___      _|__      __|_      _|__      ___>     07/08
 __<_      _>__      _|__      _|__      __<_      ___>     07/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... I'm almost certain Heisenberg was correct. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .