Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Jul 06 2004 05:22 pm


Again the market was underwater all day.  Volume rose from Friday's
"pre-holiday light", but was still -2% below average.

Two reasons I tend to discount the effect of daily news and the
resulting instant analysis are: 1) the day to day change of prices is
chaotic, and 2) the market does have a tendency to fall into trends.
So while I don't believe today's news that Moscow is putting the screws
to it's biggest oil company, Yukos, is "the reason" for today's
weakness, Russia is the second leading oil producer and uncertainty over
oil supplies isn't good for the economy.

Now, this is pure speculation on my part, but I wouldn't be at all
surprized to see the Street try to generate some action this summer,
just so they can make money on the action.  So while you're watching the
market action, always keep in the back of your mind that "this could
just be a head fake."  Look for corroborating, confirming evidence
before you believe any exciting moves, either up or down.

Yes, the economy has improved, and the Fed thinks it will continue.
The bad news is the 2003 rally was based on anticipation of this, has
"priced-in" the exiting economic conditions and probably more, and the
2004 horizontal trading range is based on anticipation of a lackluster
future.  The good news in this is improving earnings have lowered P/E
ratios and made the market less "over-valued".  But is the market a good
value yet?  Well, is it?

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      <___      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     06/29
 __|_      <___      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     06/30
 _|__      <___      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     07/01
 _<__      <___      _|__      _|__      __|_      ___>     07/02
 _<__      |___      _|__      _|__      __|_      ___>     07/06

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... This is NOT Burger King. You do not get it YOUR way. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .