Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jun 30 2004 07:25 pm


Today's market action was incredibly transparent.  Prices were
constrained until the Fed announcement was released.  Then prices
jumped, stuttered as if the Street was asking "Are we sure, do we
really want to be here?"  On reflection, it decided things were OK,
and continued to climb modestly, and closed positively, if modestly so.
Volume climed to 11% above average, improving after the announcement.
It seeme pretty clear to me the Street was satisfied, getting what it
expected.  But what is going to give the economy and the market a major
kick?  I don't see it.

I don't see many signs of a change in these summer doldrums.  Volatility
is low and the Oscillator is only modestly positive.  Even my timing
signal is only modestly positive.  We're still above the 200-day moving
average, and the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages are in a positive
configuration.  That is, the 20-day is above the 50-day which is above
the 200-day.  But they and the current price are very congested.  That's
a little risky.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      <___      __>_      __<_      __|_      __>_     06/24
 _|__      <___      __|_      ___<      __|_      __>_     06/25
 _<__      <___      __|_      __<_      __|_      __>_     06/28
 __<_      <___      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     06/29
 __|_      <___      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     06/30

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/25/04 S&P:    1113
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Calculus: The agony and dx/dc ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .