Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jun 23 2004 08:14 pm


Today prices were basically flat until the last hour or so, when they
staged a moderate rally on increasing volume.  Total volume was up
again, to +9% above average.  That's nice, but not exciting.

The fact that it was in the last hour tends to indicate it was the
professional money managers.  They're presumably working on their trades
during the business day, taking the news of the day into account before
they execute their trades before the close.  Main Street presumably
plans its trades in the evening and enters it's orders before bed-time
for its brokers to execute at the next morning's open.

But what are we to make of this?  The typical presumption is these
professional money managers have better access to information than Main
Street has.  But many of them also have limits on how long they can hold
up trades waiting for more favorable conditions.  If volume had been up
+29%, rather than just 9%, then it might be interesting.  It looks to me
this was more like necessary buying, than a change of conviction about
the market.  We'll have to wait and evaluate any follow-thru.  That's
when we'll have an idea if this means anything.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      __<_      __|_      _<__      __|_      __>_     06/17
 __>_      __<_      __>_      __<_      __>_      __>_     06/18
 _|__      _<__      __>_      _<__      __|_      __>_     06/21
 __|_      _<__      __>_      __<_      __|_      __>_     06/22
 __|_      _<__      __>_      __<_      __|_      __>_     06/23

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/25/04 S&P:    1113
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... They also surf, who only stand on waves.... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .