Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jun 16 2004 05:59 pm


Ho-hum.  Prices closed more or less unchanged, and volume sunk again to
-15% below average.  And that tells us whatever the market did
internally today, it just didn't matter much.

The periods I use below to point to a trend in my indicators are mostly
short term, 5 days, 10 on the slower moving Summation Index.  It's
largely coincidence that four of them show a flat trend.  After all,
when a teeter-totter goes from one end being down to the other end being
down, it passes through horizontal.  Still for the past 6 months, that's
not a bad description of the market, flat.

The question is, what are you supposed to DO about it?  That all depends
on your strategy and investing style.  Dollar Cost Averagers do nothing
but accumulate.  More active investors are probably well advised to keep
working on their shopping lists.  If they can use a tactic like the 7%
Solution to protect themselves, maybe they can do a little careful
bargain hunting when the market gets stupid.

Greenspan thinks the economy will continue to improve.  He may be right.
He's probably the most objective of the official sources.  I wouldn't
believe anything the Street or Administration have to say--they're
biased for one reason or another.  Laying claim to the economy's
improvment for the past 10 months or so, begs the question about the
previous 24 months or more?

I'm not concerned whether the glass is half full or half empty.  I see
some kids sitting in the corner playing with a BB-gun.  Market prices
are usually exaggerated, and these improvements in the economy have been
anticipated, and priced-in.  Geopolitical risks are not ignorable.  My
investment allocation is very conservative.  This flat market could flip
either way, and I'm not prepared to risk much until I see a sustainable
trend upward.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      __>_      __|_      _<__      __|_      __>_     06/09
 __>_      __>_      __|_      _<__      __<_      __>_     06/10
 _<__      __>_      __>_      _<__      _<__      __>_     06/14
 __<_      __|_      __|_      _<__      __<_      __>_     06/15
 __|_      __|_      __|_      _<__      __|_      __>_     06/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/25/04 S&P:    1113
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Shocking truth: 50% of Americans are below average. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .