Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Jun 08 2004 07:25 pm


If you could ignore where the market began the day, the intra-day chart
didn't look too bad.   Before the market opened Greenspan talked to a
bankers group.  He said the Fed will "do what's necessary".  That was
taken as telegraphing the certainty of a rate increase this month.  Now,
that doesn't bother me, but I'm not sure how the Street will take it.

Anyway from that gap down at the open, the market struggled back above
the line modestly.  But it doesn't look like buyers were interested,
volume fell back to -21% below average.

This little rally we've been on for the past month had been plagued with
notably lower volume.  I don't trust it!  When buyers and sellers take a
holiday and volume dries up, there isn't a ready reservoir of stock to
buffer short term perturbations.  A Trader might be able to take
advantage of this sort of rally, or correction, but that's too much like
gambling for my tastes.  If things get too "out of whack" holders will
come in to take profits, the supply driving prices back down, or bottom
feeders will siphon-up bargains if it goes the other way, the demand
causing prices to rise.  Low volume rallies or corrections usually don't
mean much.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _>__      __|_      _<__      ___|      __>_     06/02
 _|__      _|__      __|_      _<__      ___<      __>_     06/03
 __|_      _|__      __|_      <___      ___<      __>_     06/04
 ___>      __>_      __|_      _<__      ___|      __>_     06/07
 __>_      __>_      __|_      <___      ___|      __>_     06/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/25/04 S&P:    1113
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Did you expect to find words of wisdom here? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .