Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Jun 03 2004 07:53 pm 

During mid-day the market reached its best levels of the day, only just
above the line.  Once again volume betrayed a lack of enthusiasm, -17%
below average.  As you can see below the average is even falling, "<".
The low volatility we've been having has lowered the significant daily
change in price below 15pts, much below the 25pts or so I'm used to.

I'd say the most significant thing about my charts is the "congestion"
of the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day arithmetic moving averages of prices.
The long-term 200-day, at 1087, is still rising.  The short-term 20-day,
1103, has sunk below the 50-day, 1117.  They're all crowded in a 30pt
range.  Prices above the moving averages is generally taken as Bullish,
below as Bearish, especially so when it falls below the long-term
200-day.  Now, I don't think the moving averages are significant in
themselves.  They don't "direct" the market.  But if they spook enough
investors, then we could get caught in the down-draft.  We need to be
aware and wary.  It could be a long, hot summer.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _<__      __|_      _|__      ___>      _>__     05/27
 _>__      _<__      __|_      <___      ___>      __>_     05/28
 __|_      _>__      __|_      _<__      ___|      __>_     06/01
 __|_      _>__      __|_      _<__      ___|      __>_     06/02
 _|__      _|__      __|_      _<__      ___<      __>_     06/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/25/04 S&P:    1113
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Admit it. You've unleashed forces beyond your control. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .