Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue May 25 2004 07:42 pm


Oil prices fell a bit today, that was enough to encourage the Bulls.
The market rose enough to be significant.  Volume rose quite a bit too,
but from a level that had been around -20% below average, today was up
to only +2% above average.  The "timing signal" I use below just uses
prices though, and today was enough to move it above the line, see the
Momentum mini-chart below, so it popped a BUY signal.

It works best when we pay attention to just the first signal.  So I'd be
more likely to credit a signal like this--it's been almost a month since
the last signal.  As I observed several days ago, the Oscillator has
been climbing, seeming to confirm the signal.  Personally, even as a
short term signal, it seems to me this is more likely a "snapback"--too
far, too fast.  And perhaps a combination of some fear that prices have
been skirting the 200-day moving average for too long, and encouragement
to bargain hunters.  I wouldn't comit much money to playing this move,
if I did at all.  You'd have to be a Day-Trader to have taken advantage,
I expect.  For most of us this would be a sucker's move.  I remain
grumpy and skeptical.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      __>_      _|__      __|_      __>_      _<__     05/19
 __|_      __>_      _<__      |___      __>_      _<__     05/20
 __>_      __<_      _<__      _|__      __>_      _<__     05/21
 __>_      _<__      _|__      _|__      ___>      _|__     05/24
 ___>      _<__      __|_      __|_      ___>      _|__     05/25

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/25/04 S&P:    1113
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Illiterate? ... Write for FREE help. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .