Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed May 19 2004 06:40 pm


We've all had the experience of seeing the market or a stock move up
immediately after we sold.  This morning looked just like that.  Once
again the market rose sharply for the first 45 minutes and then held
those gains, until mid-afternoon when once again it all fell apart.  It
closed a little underwater, and volume rose again to +1% above average.
The Oscillator peeked over the line, as you can see in the mini-charts
below.  That's a good sign, but not enough.  Often after a prolonged
period underwater it surfaces for 2-3 weeks, falls back below for
another 2-3 weeks before finally moving higher for an extended rally.
If that happens we're just at that middle point so far.

One thing Street technicians are watching is the 200-day Moving Average.
That's just 9pts below today's close.  (Prices are already below the
50-day Moving Average.)  It could act as a Support Line, but if it
doesn't and prices fall through as if it weren't there, that's very
negative.  Lots of investors will be disposed to bail-out.  The question
they'll have to answer is whether they see enough positive signs in the
economy, domestic and international situations to stick it out, NOW.
After all, they could always get back in later when things look better,
as I intend.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      __>_      _|__      _>__      _>__      _<__     05/13
 _>__      __>_      _|__      _>__      _>__      _<__     05/14
 _<__      __>_      _|__      _|__      _>__      _<__     05/17
 __|_      __>_      _|__      _<__      _>__      _<__     05/18
 _|__      __>_      _|__      __|_      __>_      _<__     05/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/28/04 S&P:    1122
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -18

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Yeah, but what's the speed of DARK? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .