Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue May 18 2004 06:52 pm


"It's a bad plan that admits of no modification," Publius Syrus.  No,
I'm NOT talking about Administration policy!  I'm talking about my IRA
allocations.  Now understand, I'd call my strategy "Wealth preservation,
growth when possible."  I'm afraid of volatility over the next six
months.  Iraq turnover, gas prices, electioneering, it's too scarey for
me!  I cut my fund allocations in half and went to money markets.

Fortunately, I got the advantage of a little rebound bounce today.  Just
as prices opened lower yesterday and stayed there; they rose rapidly at
the open but quickly it was all over and they changed hardly at all most
of the day.  But volume fell again to -11% below average.  That's a key
indication the price rise, such as it was, was because holders weren't
willing to sell at yesterday's levels, restricting supply, causing
buyers to pay up.  But buyers weren't willing to pay too much either.

The best thing today is Bush renominated Greenspan.  Well, he had no
choice did he?

The Oscillator continues to improve, which I mentioned a while ago as
the first sign we might get a minor rally.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      __>_      _|__      __>_      |___      _<__     05/12
 _|__      __>_      _|__      _>__      _>__      _<__     05/13
 _>__      __>_      _|__      _>__      _>__      _<__     05/14
 _<__      __>_      _|__      _|__      _>__      _<__     05/17
 __|_      __>_      _|__      _<__      _>__      _<__     05/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/28/04 S&P:    1122
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -18

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... No opportunity is lost; someone else takes it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .