Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon May 17 2004 08:30 pm


The market opened down notably, apparently on news the President of the
Iraq Governing Council had been assassinated in a suicide car bombing.
It never got any better.  Volume rose, but was still -6% below average.
The ratio of Up-Volume to Down-Volume was 1:6.

Now, I agree with Bush/Blair that as it is, we can't "cut and run".  I
think the whole world needs an outcome there they judge to be positive.
But, you'll remember a number of reasons I gave in the last week or two
why the market might stage a short-term rally?  Well, the flip side of
that coin is the Iraq turnover.  The Street is going to be anticipating
how that is going to go.  I think some aren't going to want to take the
risk the turnover doesn't go well, and will sell in advance.  If the
Iraqi's in fact aren't able to take and exert control, I think the
market will tank.  (Oil uncertainty will lead to higher prices, still
higher gasoline, and higher energy prices are something like a "tax" on
a growing economy.)  There is no political loyalty on the Street.

If you need or want to protect yourself, the time to do so is NOW!  If
you try to wait until it is clear and obvious, you'll be caught in the
stampede and likely run over.  Heads-up!  Incoming!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      __>_      _|__      __>_      <___      _<__     05/11
 __<_      __>_      _|__      __>_      |___      _<__     05/12
 _|__      __>_      _|__      _>__      _>__      _<__     05/13
 _>__      __>_      _|__      _>__      _>__      _<__     05/14
 _<__      __>_      _|__      _|__      _>__      _<__     05/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/28/04 S&P:    1122
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -18

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Don't pick up that phonU9oL NO CARRIER ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .