Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon May 03 2004 07:59 pm


Prices rose early this morening and closed up nicely, but volume again
fell to 6% above average.  It looks to me today, like the past week's
action, confirms the "correction mode".

The newsbots and some investors will be watching the upcoming Fed
meeting, but I think they're making a big mistake.  I really doubt the
Fed will say anything unexpected that should surprize us.  Look at the
big picture!  What's most likely to happen over the next couple years?
Both interest rates and inflation are likely to rise.  Bonds will fall,
so bail-out of the bond funds.  The economy as a whole shows definite
signs of moderate improvements.  Those are contradictory trends when it
comes to stock prices.  Adopt a conservative strategy for your equity
investments, but equities are the place to be.  Don't look there for
"easy money" though.  Make sure your purchases represent real value.
Don't buy junk!  Don't buy stocks that have made an extended move.  If
they are more than 5% above their technical support level, they could
pull back, still in positive territory, and shake you out with the "7%
Solution."

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      <___      __|_      __<_      _|__      __<_     04/27
 (___      <___      _|__      ___|      <___      __<_     04/28
 _<__      _<__      _|__      ___>      <___      __<_     04/29
 _<__      _>__      _|__      __>_      <___      __<_     04/30
 __<_      _>__      _|__      __>_      _|__      __<_     05/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/28/04 S&P:    1122
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -18

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... If ye dinae know what it meant, you wo'nae be embarrased. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .