Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Apr 22 2004 06:39 pm


The day-traders had a field-day on the Street.  My conservative formula
had to call it an "Accumulation Day", and my timing signal reversed
itself yet again and popped a BUY signal.  Prices were up more than
enough to be significant on their own, but volume was also up +25%!  The
Up- to Down-volume ration was 4:1, Advancers to Decliners 3:1.

Why?

I found three explanations that seem reasonable to me.  1) Covering
their Shorts.  The market has been in a short-term correction mode, a
lot of the traders had been shorting the market.  It has seemed there
are a lot of challenges ahead.  But they were probably over doing it
some.  With Greenspan's basically positive outlook, it looks like
shorting the market could be dangerous.  He was smiling in the picture
in the paper today!  2)  Recognition that Greenspan said nothing more
than the obvious, which has been generally expected.  My commentary
predicted the next rate change was going to be up, months ago!  3) Some
companies, Catepillar for example, blew away earnings estimates.
Catepillar is in a good position to evaluate international growth
prospects.  They think it's excellent.

All that said, in my opinion prices need to rise another 20pts to get
high enough to mount a challenge to my Resistance Line.  It has to get
above that before I'm willing to consider a change in mood.  A day
trader can make a buck on that 20pts though.  Also, I think this has
been an effective correction for the broad market.  The Summation Index
is back down to the levels of last August, when we ended that Pennant
formation.  The Summation Index hasn't recovered from the kick it got in
the 90's.  It's still about 3500pts higher than it "should be", but I
already covered this problem a couple months ago.  I'm still not willing
to change the formula to make it more short-term oriented.

So we'll see if this move has legs.  The number to remember is 1160.  If
we get above that in a convincing way, maybe I'll believe a Buy signal.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      _<__      __<_     04/16
 __>_      __|_      __|_      _>__      _>__      __<_     04/19
 |___      __<_      _|__      __|_      >___      __<_     04/20
 __<_      _<__      _|__      __>_      |___      __<_     04/21
 ___|      _<__      __|_      ___>      _|__      __<_     04/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/22/04 S&P:    1140
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Life is too short to teach logic to slugs. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .