Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Apr 20 2004 06:06 pm


"Good new is bad news."  Greenspan testified before the Banking
Committee that things aren't bad, there's little chance of deflation,
and the money center banks are in good position to weather a future
increase in the Fed-Funds rate.  And at 2:30 the market fell off a
cliff.

"Sell in May and walk away?"  Not if you're a Dollar Cost Averager!
Your time to collect some bargains has come.

Prices fell significantly by my reckoning, and that was enough to kick
my dithering timing signal into a SELL signal.  Should've done that a
week ago when it popped the first sell signal.  Volume rose from -17%
below average to +4% above, but that wasn't enough for my other formula
to call it a Distribution Day, but it was.  The ratio of Up-Volume to
Down-Volume was 1:4, and the Advance-Decline ratio was 1:3.

He has more testimony to give tomorrow.  But there were no surprizes in
what he said today, and probably won't be tomorrow.  The problem is some
investors have been ignoring reality.

If you were "running money", don't you think the "cost of money" would
figure into your asset allocation?  If you can get more than 1% or so
from riskless short-term money rates, would that affect how much you
invested in risky stocks?  It certainly does in the Black-Scholes Model
of option valuation.  The Street has lots of these formulas in their
computers which advise, if not direct, their asset allocations.  The
market falling when interest rates rise, or appear to rise, is as
predictable as a teeter-totter.  Ignore it at your peril.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      __|_      _|__      __<_      <___      ___|     04/14
 __<_      __|_      _|__      __|_      <___      __<_     04/15
 __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      _<__      __<_     04/16
 __>_      __|_      __|_      _>__      _>__      __<_     04/19
 |___      __<_      _|__      __|_      >___      __<_     04/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/20/04 S&P:    1118
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -16

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Therefore seek not to know for whom the bell tolls... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .