Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Apr 15 2004 07:13 pm

Don't get excited that the price change is on the positive side today,
it was 2/3 of a point!  Most of the day prices were below the line.  The
problem is that volume increased modestly over yesterday, up to +9%
above average.  That means buyers found all the stock they wanted at
these prices or less, i.e. holders didn't have a strong commitment to
remain holders.  That's not particularly good news for the Bullish camp.
When more buyers come to the floor, the Bulls want them to have to bid
prices up in order to winkle stock from the holders.  This is like OPEC,
too many holders are cheating on the supply side.

Want some good news?  This isn't bad news!  I'm not saying that there
aren't any risks to the economy in the near future, just that this sort
of temporizing action gives reality a chance to catch up with investors'
expectations.  The last year reminds me of the punch line of an old joke
"it feels so good when it stops."  Investors over-reacted when the Bear
stopped punishing them.  A year ago we closed at 891, today 1129.
What's to feel bad about?  If we closed the year here, we wouldn't have
all that much to complain about!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      __>_      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___>     04/08
 __<_      __>_      __|_      |___      _<__      ___>     04/12
 <___      __>_      __|_      _<__      <___      ___|     04/13
 _<__      __|_      _|__      __<_      <___      ___|     04/14
 __<_      __|_      _|__      __|_      <___      __<_     04/15

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/14/04 S&P:    1128
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     1

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Don't sweat petty things, or pet sweaty things. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .