Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Apr 14 2004 08:01 pm


A political ad running on local TV says: "One out of two asbestos
workers ... will eventually die."  Ummm, no, I'd make that two out of
two.

The market fell sharply on opening, then gradually and grudgingly made
it modestly above the line around noon.  Then prices reversed course and
fell back to the morning lows in a semi-circular formation.  In late
afternoon they staged an attempt at a recovery that fell short.  I
warned you my timing formula was about to pop a SELL signal, and
finishing down today was all it needed.  Volume increased to 8% above
average, and the ratio of advancers to decliners was 2:7.  The
Oscillator is as negative as it has been since the first of last year.
So I'd believe this signal.  Prices are back below the 20-Day Moving
Average and heading for the 50-Day, to which most technicians will
react.

It may be the market could find support down around 1090, near the low a
few weeks ago and create another horizontal trading range.  I'd say
that's a fairly optimistic outlook.  You'll recall my commentary a month
ago suggested the market was in a bind between either a continuing poor
economy albeit with low interest rates, but a better economy hastening
the day the Fed would have to raise rates.  Today's release of higher
CPI numbers was followed almost immediately by falling prices on the
Street.  I'm not "loaded for Bear" yet, but I wouldn't be crawling into
his den to make sure he's sound asleep!  Neither am I afraid of stepping
in one of the Bull's "cowpies" on the Street.  My attitude about the
market has been mostly conservative this year.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      __|_      __|_      __|_      __<_      ___>     04/07
 _<__      __>_      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___>     04/08
 __<_      __>_      __|_      |___      _<__      ___>     04/12
 <___      __>_      __|_      _<__      <___      ___|     04/13
 _<__      __|_      _|__      __<_      <___      ___|     04/14

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/14/04 S&P:    1128
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     1

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Remember-- EVIAN is NAIVE spelled backwards! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .