Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Apr 12 2004 06:53 pm


"No silver bullet."  Risk averse people always want "actionable
intelligence" that will make their world predictable and safe.
Understand that what is being asked for is the ability to predict the
future, and that is not possible.  Good intelligence at best lets one
identify trends and probabilities.  Courageous and confident people will
take action anyway.

What?  No, I'm NOT commenting on Condoleezza Rice's testimony!  What do
you think this is, an AM radio talk show?  Do I look like Rush?

I'm talking about investing, and the belief some investors have that
some chart or indicator will tell them what the market, or a stock, is
going to do tomorrow.

In today's action prices improved, but volume decreased -23% below
average.  That leads me to expect buyers are unwilling to take new
positions, but holders aren't panicking either.  Most of the S&P500
companies are reporting earnings this week.  I'd say this action implies
the Street isn't all that confident earnings will be significantly
better than has already been priced into the market.  But that's only an
inference!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      __<_      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     04/05
 _>__      __<_      __|_      _|__      __<_      ___>     04/06
 _>__      __|_      __|_      __|_      __<_      ___>     04/07
 _<__      __>_      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___>     04/08
 __<_      __>_      __|_      |___      _<__      ___>     04/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  03/30/04 S&P:    1127
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Use Mental Floss daily to help prevent Truth Decay. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .