Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Apr 08 2004 06:49 pm


Prices leapt at the open, perhaps due to Dr Rice's testimony, but then
went into a long slide into negative territory until just before the
close.  Then a short closing rally brought prices back up to nearly
even, but not quite.  The key was volume, -18% below average.  Since
tomorrow is Good Friday and I think the NYSE is closed, I'll bet
investors were taking off early for a long weekend.  If that's true,
that makes the low volume ending rally all the less important.  The
Oscillator has been falling for the past week, and is now below the
line, so the entire NYSE is losing ground.

So the apparent direction is lower, retreating from testing the 1160
Resistance Line.  Not all corrective phases in the market are marked by
notably falling prices.  Horizontal trading ranges or the kind of "flag
formation" prices showed last summer, after the March breakout and
run-up, can perform the same function.

If you're tactically working your strategy this isn't all bad!  Dollar
Cost Averagers are getting a chance to collect more "inventory" without
paying ever increasing prices.  And frankly, sometimes a healthy market
just needs to "rest".  If you're losing money at times like this, you're
doing something wrong!  FIX IT!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___|     04/02
 __>_      __<_      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     04/05
 _>__      __<_      __|_      _|__      __<_      ___>     04/06
 _>__      __|_      __|_      __|_      __<_      ___>     04/07
 _<__      __>_      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___>     04/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  03/30/04 S&P:    1127
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Of course, I could be wrong ..... Naaah! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .