Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Apr 07 2004 05:14 pm


"You'll recall a few months ago I was calling for a correction to counter
the over-heated market of the past year.  We were due for a correction
of the over-sold Bear Market, typical 'snap-back' behavior, but not a
new Bull Market."  I guess I could have written that better.  Put the
second sentence first.  So last year's wonderful performance was the
snap-back, but investors SO wanted and expected a recovery they bid up
prices excessively.  And THAT is why the first sentence came into play.

Well, today was no better than yesterday's.  The market quickly fell to
around the 1140 level and seemed to find some support there.  In late
afternoon there was a bump in the action, but the market gave it all up
again and closed where it spent the day.  Volume actually increased to
+1% above average.

Looked at from an overall perspective though, it looks like the market
couldn't even make it back up to test its Resistance Line at 1160 before
it failed.  It needs some real good earnings news soon.  If you'll
remember recent years, even before the Bear Market, the market often has
performed poorly in the spring.  That is not to say this year there
might not be some over-riding issues with the economic recovery and the
election--just that I wouldn't normally expect a "traditional spring
rally", there isn't one.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___<     04/01
 __>_      __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___|     04/02
 __>_      __<_      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     04/05
 _>__      __<_      __|_      _|__      __<_      ___>     04/06
 _>__      __|_      __|_      __|_      __<_      ___>     04/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  03/30/04 S&P:    1127
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Read the docs. Wow, what a radical concept! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .