Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Apr 06 2004 08:09 pm


Yesterday's lack of enthusiasm for the higher priced stocks presaged
today's lackluster performance.  Prices were basically underwater all
day, in spite of the DJIA's modest closing rally.  Volume was virtually
the same as yesterday, -3% below average again.

You'll recall a few months ago I was calling for a correction to counter
the over-heated market of the past year.  We were due for a correction
of the over-sold Bear Market, typical "snap-back" behavior, but not a
new Bull Market.  Amateurs of recent years may think the market goes up
and the market goes down, but in reality a normal market spends a lot of
time dithering and going sideways.

The general market behavior lately has been of a indecisive market.  But
as I suggested yesterday, with Q1 earnings being reported soon, the
market is poised just under a recent resistance line.  If earnings are
more encouraging than expected, and they're expected to show a fairly
strong economic recovery, prices could push through the resistance line
and turn it into a support line.  If earnings disappoint, the resistance
line gives investors an excuse to reduce their holdings and take
profits, reinforcing the apparent strength of the resistance line.  This
is normal behavior.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      __<_     03/31
 __>_      __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___<     04/01
 __>_      __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___|     04/02
 __>_      __<_      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     04/05
 _>__      __<_      __|_      _|__      __<_      ___>     04/06

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  03/30/04 S&P:    1127
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... One good turn........gets most of the blankets. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .