Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Apr 01 2004 06:12 pm


About mid-morning market prices rose on increasing volume, then coasted
for the rest of the day, holding most of their gains.  Volume increased
to +6% above average.  Prices are just below the 50-day Moving Average.
Getting above that would be a positive sign.  Getting above 1160 would
signal this correction is over and a new rally could start.

The purpose for the minimal documentation I've been describing is to
enable us to review our tactical decisions buying and selling stock.
While I don't believe most investors are effective "timing the market",
when it comes to buying and selling stocks, timing can be crucial.  We
need to be able to identify our mistakes and improve our rules.  So a
few weeks after buying a stock we should review how things have gone.
Perhaps we're indecisive and buying too late, after the stock has
already risen 5%-10%, then a normal pull-back to retest the support
level triggers our 7% Solution.  That's not the fault of the 7%
Solution!  Then when we sell a stock, we need to update our
documentation and review the entire trade again.  Did we buy right and
sell right?  This documentation can help us identify where we are making
mistakes, and knowing that can help us correct them.

We all have habits.  If we want to be better investors, we need to turn
habits into effective rules.  It's like I say about computing management
rules on making backups, "Everybody makes mistakes.  Plan for it!  Keep
regular, current backups to protect yourself."

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      ___>      _<__      _|__      _>__      __<_     03/26
 __>_      __|_      _<__      _|__      __>_      __<_     03/29
 __>_      __<_      __|_      _|__      __>_      __<_     03/30
 _>__      __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      __<_     03/31
 __>_      __<_      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___<     04/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  03/30/04 S&P:    1127
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Klein bottle for rent. Inquire within. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .