Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Mar 24 2004 04:04 pm


Once again the market "mailed it in".  Prices were little changed, and
volume was just a little above average.  And that's just the S&P500,
which has been holding up better than most.  The broad NYSE market, as
measured by the McClellan Indices, has been hit hard.  The Oscillator is
decidedly negative, and the Summation Index has finally come unstuck.

If you're dedicated to the Bullish camp, you might wonder what it would
take to rally the market.  The Street isn't going to be ignoring Q1
earnings "confessions", and it might take some heart if actual earnings
reports are much better than expected.  But we haven't finished with Q1
yet, and it will take them some time to get their numbers together.

It seems to me a large percentage of the market commentators I've been
hearing have been saying the market is over-valued still.  They've
suggested this is little more than a Bear Market, still, Bull Trap.
Looking at a 10-year chart shows they aren't all wrong.  I keep
reminding you I haven't jumped on the Bull Market bandwagon.
Personally, I'm wondering how the market is going to react to the
campaign season.  How will it react to prospects of four more years of
the Bush Administration's economic policies?  I still favor conservative
investment strategies for a while.  CYA!  Ummm, conserve your assets!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      __>_      _|__      _<__      _>__      ___<     03/18
 _>__      __>_      _|__      _<__      _>__      ___<     03/19
 _<__      __>_      _|__      __<_      <___      ___<     03/22
 _<__      __>_      _|__      _|__      _<__      ___<     03/23
 _<__      ___>      _<__      __|_      <___      __<_     03/24

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/10/04 S&P:    1124
Winner or Loser:  Winner!               By:     72

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Nobody expects a fannish imposition! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .