Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Mar 18 2004 06:06 pm


There was no follow-through of the supposed "Fed rally" this morning.
Mid-day the news from Pakistan hit the Street.  Prices improved
somewhat, but still finished "narrowly mixed."  Volume was -8% below
average.  The thing I look at is when news like that moves the market,
it's a sign that the market is indecisive.  When there is a strong trend
the market tends to shrug-off news like that.

So what's up?  I guess we might be looking at Q1 earnings season coming
up.  Watch for any "confessions".  Investors want confirmation that
corporate earnings are improving along with the economic statistics.
It's not unusual for the market to sag in Q2/Q3.  I agree with a recent
headline I saw that the market is likely to be affected by the campaign
season.  I'd be cautious and conservative with my short-term investment
strategy.  I think it's going to be a tough few months for Momentum
Players.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _>__      _|__      _|__      _<__      ___|     03/12
 <___      __>_      _|__      __<_      <___      ___<     03/15
 __<_      __>_      _|__      __<_      _|__      ___<     03/16
 __>_      __>_      _|__      __<_      _>__      ___<     03/17
 _>__      __>_      _|__      _<__      _>__      ___<     03/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/10/04 S&P:    1124
Winner or Loser:  Winner!               By:     72

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Let us taunt it; perhaps it will become cross, & go away ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .