Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Mar 12 2004 05:47 pm


Yesterday you were lamenting what you didn't do.  I hope you did it on
today's modest rise.  Yes, I said "modest", even though the price change
was nearly, 94% of my "significant difference" level.  I got to look at
an intra-day 5-day chart, and on that scale today hardly even counts as
a "snapback".

Individual investors make several mistakes when we get a scarey drop in
the market.  First, they are unprepared, and aren't ready to act
decisively.  Second, they're shocked, and get the "deer in the
headlights" stare.  Third, by the time the shock wears off and they're
ABLE to act, the big initial drop is all over.  Quick changes either way
are usually followed by a minor "snap-back".  And fourth, they take the
snapback as an excuse to continue to hold, when they should be acting.
Why do you think we call these "Bull Traps"?  Prices going up isn't
always Bullish!  When prices and volume move up or down together, THAT'S
Bullish.  When one goes up and the other goes down, that's Bearish!

OK, let's review the day.  Prices recovered most of what they lost
yesterday.  What's the immediate question?  "Did ya mean it?"  Volume
was +27% above average yesterday, -5% below average today.  So the
answer is, "No".

Most investors who do anything at all in the way of "technical analysis"
know about watching the 50-day, 10-weekm Moving Average.  I also compute
a 20-day, 4 week, moving average as an "early warning" thing.  It's
about to drop through the 50-day average.  That doesn't mean the 50-day
is destined to fall below the 200-day, of course.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      <___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     03/08
 _<__      <___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___|     03/09
 <___      |___      _|__      __<_      _<__      ___|     03/10
 <___      _>__      _|__      ___|      <___      ___|     03/11
 __<_      _>__      _|__      _|__      _<__      ___|     03/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/10/04 S&P:    1124
Winner or Loser:  Winner!               By:     72

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... If ignorance isn't bliss, I don't know what is. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .