Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Mar 11 2004 05:52 pm


Yesterday some of the media were blaming the drop on the Trade Gap,
today on the Madrid attack.  Neither helped the market, of course, but
both were essentially irrelevant.  The media has to have some "reason".
They're certainly NOT going to tell you, as I have, that a correction
has been long over-due.  They'd have to explain why they hadn't been
informing investor since the first of the year!  I warned you.

If you haven't been heeding the warnings, and now wish you had, you
might get a typical snap-back tomorrow or Monday.  Maybe.  This drop
seems a bit over-done--50pts since Friday?!  But I warned you that
dropping through the 50-Day Moving Average would prompt a major selling.
I can't quite use the word "panic", but it has something of that flavor.

Today's action amplified yesterday's.  The price drop went from -1.1
times my "significance level" to -1.2.  Volume increased from +11% above
average to +27% above.  This is the second greatest volume we've seen
since a year ago January.  As expected, last year's rising tops line
didn't represent much of a support line.

I have one good piece of advice for you.  Forget 2003.  I think this
drop terminates the Bullish technical indicators originating in 2003.
It creates a new phase of the market.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      <___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     03/05
 _|__      <___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     03/08
 _<__      <___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___|     03/09
 <___      |___      _|__      __<_      _<__      ___|     03/10
 <___      _>__      _|__      ___|      <___      ___|     03/11

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/10/04 S&P:    1124
Winner or Loser:  Winner!               By:     72

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Never trust a smiling cat. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .