Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Mar 09 2004 06:27 pm


The market was underwater all day.  Volume increased over yesterday,
back to average.  Granted, the measure of "average volume" has been
debatable all year, but this is not Bullish.  Is anybody listening?

I'm expecting a sell signal from my timing indicator soon, and not for
the first time recently.  The S&P 50-day Moving Average is 1136, just a
few points below where we are now.  Some investors will increase their
selling when we dip below.  Is anybody listening?

One other thing to point out is the effect of the low volatility.  In
general over the past several years the measure of volatility has been
such that a significant price change has been around 25pts.  That's been
the average of the trailing 4-week price Standard Deviation since
January of the previous year.  Now it's less than 15pts.  Today's
reading for just the past 4 weeks is 6pts.  With this tight little
trading range, prices just have not been fluctuating that much.  So it
won't take much price action on decent volume to signal a "Distribution"
day, at least in my conservative definition.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      __>_      ___<     03/03
 __|_      <___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     03/04
 __|_      <___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     03/05
 _|__      <___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     03/08
 _<__      <___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___|     03/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Bigger isn't necessarily better - take a look at Windows! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .