Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Mar 01 2004 07:01 pm


I'll bet you heard great things about the market being up today.  Your
first question should be, "Did ya' mean it?"  Volume fell from
yesterday's activity, and was -5% below average.  So, the answer is
"no".  I've pencilled a 1160 resistance line on my charts.  It isn't
enough that prices penetrate that level, they have to do it with
convinging enthusiasm, i.e. volume.  Because the market is moving
horizontally, prices are heading for a collision with the 50-day Moving
Average.  That is another technical indicator investors will be
watching.

There were a few parallel things in the news.

I'm glad the judge threw out the fraud charge in the Stewart trial.  It
made no sense!  Charge a CEO with anything, either (s)he admits to it,
or (s)he protests innocence, in which case you've got him/her on a
securities fraud charge.  (S)he's stuck either way.  When did we lose
our right to assert our innocence?

Corporate capital expenditures were revised higher in Q4.  That's good
for the economy.  I've been waiting for that.

The NONPARTISAN Congressional Budget Office's analysis of President
Bush's budget would reduce federal deficits for a little while, but
produce deficits of $2.75T (that's TRILLION) over the next decade.  If
Congress doesn't accept his tax and spending plans, they'll save $737B.

PBS's Nightly Business Report market analyst Friday suggested this past
year has been another Bull Trap in a longer term Bear Market that still
lives!  The afore-mentioned deficits may be one reason.  I just try to
keep up with what the market is doing, but I certainly wouldn't argue
with this Bull Trap possibility.  I'm looking at my IRA funds for a
conservative strategy to preserve the part of losses I've recovered.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      _|__      __|_      _<__      <___      ___<     02/24
 __<_      _|__      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___<     02/25
 __|_      <___      __|_      _<__      _>__      ___<     02/26
 __|_      <___      __|_      _<__      _>__      ___<     02/27
 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      __>_      ___<     03/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Q:What must I do to convince you people? Worf:Die. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .