Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Feb 17 2004 05:05 pm


Prices were up nicely, but once again volume was a negative divergence,
-12% below average.  That's not good.  It tells me the institutional
investors who hold most of the stock are in fact withholding it.  Prices
are higher because buyers must bid up to get stock in the face of
restricted supply.  If buyers do that enough, then prices may be pushed
high enough for holders to reap a small profit.  They can "oversatisfy"
the demand, driving prices back down below fair value, and retake their
positions or move on to something else.  This is three times in the past
month that we've been just above 1155, but the market retreated the
other two times.  If it does so again, investors might begin to look on
this level as resistance and take their profits.

I just want you to understand that it's a good thing for the market to
experience these periodic "consolidations" in one fashion or another.
We never know to what extent they will run so we need to protect
ourselves, but by protecting ourselves we needn't fear them.

This jobs issue that's beginning to be heard in the campaign rhetoric is
more significant than just that.  It's a good reason to be conservative
in our investment outlooks over the longer term.  I recommend to you a
review of the economic progress and regress of Great Britain between,
say, the early 19th to mid-20th centuries, or post-war Japan.  To be
sure, history never repeats itself exactly.  But there are lessons to be
learned.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      |___      __|_      _>__      _>__      ___<     02/10
 __>_      |___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___<     02/11
 _>__      |___      __|_      _>__      _>__      ___<     02/12
 _|__      |___      __|_      _>__      _|__      ___<     02/13
 __|_      _|__      __|_      _>__      __|_      ___<     02/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Is infinity odd or even? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .