Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Feb 12 2004 07:30 pm


Did I say yesterday the Street would soon forget the optimism over
Greenspan's testimony?  Prices were underwater all day.  Volume was
down, -7% below average.  Well, that's better than a stampede for the
door, but I'm afraid a lot of careful distribution was responsible for
January's volume.  It certainly didn't drive prices upward like it
should.  That bothers me.

I'm certainly not encouraged by Investor's Intelligence survey of
investment advisors.  Currently 56.6% of them are Bullish, only 19.2%
Bearish.  Why not?  Well, they've been that way since November of 2002,
except in mid-March 2003 when they became 40% Bullish and 38% Bearish.
Mid-March was when the Market apparently finally "bottomed" and it's
been virtually all up from there.  I wasn't willing until my charts
showed we were out from under the Bear Market's influence in mid-May.
If they could have predicted the market, that's when they should have
been MOST Bullish!  That's why they are a "contrarian indicator".
Whatever they all say, assume they're wrong.  We all feel pretty good
about the market now, that's part of what's got me worried.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___<     02/06
 _|__      |___      __|_      _<__      _>__      ___<     02/09
 __>_      |___      __|_      _>__      _>__      ___<     02/10
 __>_      |___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___<     02/11
 _>__      |___      __|_      _>__      _>__      ___<     02/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Know how to boil a frog? Heard about global warming? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .