Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Feb 09 2004 05:04 pm


This is not good, people.  I'm even wondering if Yahoo/Finance gave me
bad numbers.  Prices were little changed all day, but volume was -20%
below this year's average.  Today's volume is back to levels not seen on
a continuous basis since since Thanksgiving.  I'll see what IBD tells me
in the morning paper.  I've been worried all year about the sudden jump
in volume, even restarted my moving average to cut last December's low
volume days out of it and run from the beginning of this year.

Institutional investors are the ones that do the lion's share of
trading.  This sort of drop in volume seems to tell me something like,
"OK, I'm out'a here, you're on your own."  I suggested the heavy volume
at what appeared to be a near-term high could be savvy floor traders
distributing stock from their own accounts, just satisfying public
demand without increasing supply so much as to drive prices down.  Main
Street can't hold the market up all on it's own.

Maybe I got bad numbers.  Maybe this is a one day abberation.  I hope
so, because if this is what I think it could be, I'm not seeing no rats
on this ship!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      <___      __|_      _|__      _|__      ___<     02/03
 _<__      <___      __|_      __|_      |___      ___<     02/04
 __<_      <___      __|_      _|__      |___      ___<     02/05
 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___<     02/06
 _|__      |___      __|_      _<__      _>__      ___<     02/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... If you stomp gripes, do you get whine? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .