Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Feb 04 2004 10:16 pm


If I thought I could predict the future, I'd say we're finally starting
the long-awaited correction.  Look at the Oscillator.  My timing
indicator is diving for the line too.  Unlike many times in the past,
volume didn't dry up as prices fell.  It was about +1% above average for
this year, not panic selling but volume has been high all year.  If I
was holding any risky an risky positions, well, no, I wouldn't still be
holding any risky positions.

For your information, let me ask you a question.  What's a dollar worth?
Day to day it's all too easy for us to think it fixed, but of course it
hasn't been since we went off the gold standard.  We know the dollar has
been weakening vs the Euro for some time.  Gold, Euro, their value is
just as flexible, to be sure.  But for now think of the value of dollar
demoninated US companies as compared to international companies
denominated in their own currencies.  What's fixed here?  The relative
value of the companies.  Let those fluctuate and international investors
are going to run to or from the mis-valued companies.  If there is such
a thing as an "efficient market" on Wall Street, there is equally an
efficient market internationally--the Asian Meltdown of '98 showed us
that!  So if the intrinsic value of US companies is fixed, and the
dollar is falling, my question is how much of this "rally" we've been on
is no more than just devaluation of our dollars?  Of course that's no
small part of it.  Therefore, the rally isn't representing an improving
economy nearly as much as Main Street investors have believed.  That
should be a definite concern to us as investors, as Americans, as
voters.

As the dollar strengthens, there will be a currency based correction in
stock prices since the value of the companies won't necessarily change
just because the dollar did.  But long term perhaps it means there is
more room for economic growth than we think now.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _<__      __|_      __|_      <___      ___|     01/29
 _<__      _<__      __|_      __>_      <___      ___|     01/30
 __<_      _<__      __|_      _>__      _<__      ___<     02/02
 __|_      <___      __|_      _|__      _|__      ___<     02/03
 _<__      <___      __|_      __|_      |___      ___<     02/04

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... "Energize!" said Picard and the pink bunny appeared... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .