Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Feb 02 2004 06:03 pm


It's a little hard to figure out today's action.  Prices were lower all
morning.  Then apparently around noon a rumor hit the Street that a
"first tier" house was pulling lots of money out of bonds and shifting
to stocks.  Prices jumped higher, with a momentary spike in volume.
Prices stayed higher most of the afternoon, though volume quickly
returned to what it had been.  Then late in the afternoon prices fell
back to about where they began.  In the end, prices were little changed
and NYSE volume was -3% below this year's average.

So was it all just a head-fake?  Looks like it.  Does it tell us
anything about investors attitudes and how they are likely to react?
I'd suggest it shows there are some investors who believe things can go
up forever, but that by and large investors are "jumpy".  Volume this
year stays notably higher than all last year.  What I fear is that this
has been careful distribution.  Since it hasn't been driving prices to a
noticable rally, I think it's wrong to see it as positive "enthusiasm".
It looks more like "profit taking".

Things would be a lot easier if investors would just accept that
corrections are a natural and healthy part of the market.  Otherwise the
market would get WWAAAYYY ahead of itself, causing lots more damaging
crashes.  So like they said in the 60's, "go with the flow"!  When the
market wants to correct, don't fight it and it will get over faster.  I
guess it's sort of like having a cold.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      _<__      __>_      _<__      _<__      ___|     01/27
 <___      _<__      __>_      __|_      _<__      ___|     01/28
 __<_      _<__      __|_      __|_      <___      ___|     01/29
 _<__      _<__      __|_      __>_      <___      ___|     01/30
 __<_      _<__      __|_      _>__      _<__      ___<     02/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... A tisket, a tasket, a condom or a casket?!? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .