Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Jan 30 2004 06:21 pm


So that's January.  We started the month at 1108, ended at 1131, so if
the January Effect is true this year we should have basically a positive
year.  That doesn't mean a return to the market growth we saw several
years ago, or that we won't have some dramatic corrections.  Last year
we in the grip of the Bear until March, January was down, -55pts!

I don't pay any attention to the January Effect when I'm planning my
investing strategies.  Strategies are longer term, and based primarily
on the investing style that best fits me--only secondarily on the market
and what it's doing.  I track the market to find out what's going on on
a much shorter term.  It's strictly "tactical".  To the extent that
there is ANY predictability in the market, it's due to investors being
creatures of habit and getting attitudes such as I have been expressing
about the market needing a correction.  Usually they don't change
directions on a dime, but they CAN!  Especially the ones on the Street.

Today the market hovered right around 1130, underwater all day.  Volume
was about average for the year.

Look, don't be afraid of corrections, just have tactics that protect you
from significant losses.  It's said Warren Buffet's two rules of
investing are 1) Don't lose money, and 2) Don't forget rule #1.
Corrections are healthy and often necessary.


 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _<__      __>_      _|__      __|_      ___|     01/26
 _|__      _<__      __>_      _<__      _<__      ___|     01/27
 <___      _<__      __>_      __|_      _<__      ___|     01/28
 __<_      _<__      __|_      __|_      <___      ___|     01/29
 _<__      _<__      __|_      __>_      <___      ___|     01/30

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... I'm sorry my karma ran over your dogma ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .