Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Jan 27 2004 06:23 pm

"Slip-slidin' away."  The market fell all day.  It tried to turn around
in mid-afternoon, but it had no chance.  Volume was a bit below average,
but "nicely" higher than yesterday's very positive move.  That's a
Bearish divergence.  The Oscillator slipped below the line today.  Do I
see investors edging for the door?  Remember, corrections are typically
10% or so.

If you're of the Republican persuasion you might not take these
projected deficits too seriously--your guy and your Concresscritters
caused them.  As I've warned many times before, don't let your politics
confuse your investing judgement.  It appears the voters in New
Hampshire haven't.  Unless by some "miracle" the economy returns to the
growth rates of the go-go Clinton years, the government is going to be
the 800 pound gorilla in the fixed income market, vacuuming up all the
scared cash it can find.  Corporate America can't compete when it comes
to security.  They're going to have to pay higher rates, and that's
going to slow their growth.  George Bush is going to be influencing our
investment strategies for years to come.  That's not a political
statement, just a recognition of economic realities.  We need to go back
and look at how federal deficits affected the market in the past.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      __<_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___|     01/21
 _|__      __|_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___|     01/22
 _|__      _|__      __>_      _>__      __|_      ___|     01/23
 __|_      _<__      __>_      _|__      __|_      ___|     01/26
 _|__      _<__      __>_      _<__      _<__      ___|     01/27

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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