Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jan 21 2004 04:39 pm

I just couldn't stand the distortion my Volume 30-day moving average was
making to my analysis any more.  Today I changed it to compute this
month's moving average from the first of the year.  It caused an
immediate jump of over 300Ms in the average.  This effect will disappear
in a couple weeks as the 30-day moving average would naturally be
counting only this year's volume, but in the mean time I think I'll have
a truer picture of "enthusiasm".

Today the DJIA opened lower, but it steadily gained all day.  The OTC
never did quite get above the line.  Because it's some of both, the S&P
was in the middle, but up nicely.  Volume was nearly +10% above average,
by my new measurement of "average", just under what it would take to be
classed an "Accumulation Day".  So it does represent buying enthusiasm.

Enjoy the ride, but take this time to decide what you're going to do
when the market corrects.  I think this rate of growth is dangerous.
Just when you think it's really true and it can keep going, whamo!  You
know that's how it works.  So don't be afraid to take profits, and don't
chase stocks.  That's the way you get hurt, buying after they've run
well up out of their bases.

The fact that the Oscillator is very modestly positive tells me there
are falling prices in the secondary stocks.  The fact that the Summation
Index is pegged tells me they've already made "substantial" gains.
Don't try to catch a falling knife, but you might begin to watch them
for evidence of new base building.  The smaller cap stocks are typically
the first to lead a recovery phase, so that makes sense.  Maybe it's
time the major stocks are finally going to throw their weight around.
But as the base of the market narrows, it becomes more precarious and
eventually topples.  That's not a prediction, mind, just an observation
of the normal manner of things.  Don't let your enthusiasm run away with
you.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      __<_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/14
 __|_      __<_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/15
 __>_      __<_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/16
 _>__      __<_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___|     01/20
 __|_      __<_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___|     01/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... To a cat, "NO!" means "Not while I'm looking." ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .