Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Jan 20 2004 06:11 pm

Volume remained high today.  That's significant, in my opinion.  Last
week options expired.  Typically that leads to higher volume as
positions are unwound and rolled over.  Volume was high, but it has been
since the first of the year.  In the past the following Monday would
typically fall back to average.  OK, well I suppose you could say the
same for last week, but volume has been so high who could tell?

So there's been all this enthusiasm to trade stocks this year, what
effect has it had?  Well, the broader market has NOT participated.  The
Oscillator represents the momentum of the Advance-Decline line, showing
whether ALL stocks on the NYSE are closing higher or lower.  The
Oscillator started the year falling and has flattened-out just shy of
going negative.  Prices are in a decent up trend, but it doesn't seem
that the price action and volume are supporting each other, i.e. heavy
trading drives prices higher.

That's why I haven't been particularly enthusiastic lately.  Oh, my
timing signal isn't about to pop a Sell signal any time soon.  So just
ride it out for now.  Maybe what I'm seeing is the beginnings of market
rotation out of the secondary stocks and into the major indices.  If
that's true it might keep going.  But as I said a couple weeks ago, we
need a correction!  It would be healthy, and allow the market to keep
rising.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      __<_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/13
 __<_      __<_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/14
 __|_      __<_      __>_      ___>      __|_      ___>     01/15
 __>_      __<_      __>_      ___>      __|_      ___>     01/16
 _>__      __<_      __>_      ___>      __|_      ___|     01/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Baroque (n.): When you are out of Monet. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .