Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Jan 12 2004 06:20 pm

No, Sir, you're wrong.  Deficits DO count!  Once upon a time your party
believed that.  There is no such thing as "deficit spending", that's
just a euphemism for financing expenses, borrowing to pay your bills, or
living off your credit card.  Anybody who believes that is smart doesn't
belong in public office.  The only reason the Reagan Deficits could be
payed-down was the record breaking economic expansion and Bull Market
between 1982 and 2000.  We can't depend on that happening again.
Interest is the least beneficial expense once can have.  Financial
security is not possible until one gets control of, and pays off, one's
debt.

As far today's market goes, I caught the intraday chart early in the
day.  It looked like a series of U's.  That's not very encouraging.  The
Oscillator has been falling for the past two weeks.  (The trend shown
below is very short term, only 5 days.)  Prices were up, albeit
modestly, and volume was -5% below average since the first of the year.
That's not a good combination.  Still, I wouldn't be shorting this
market.  It ain't over till it's over.  But I would protect myself.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      __>_      __>_      ___|      __|_      ___>     01/06
 __>_      __>_      __>_      ___>      __|_      ___>     01/07
 __>_      __>_      __>_      ___>      __|_      ___>     01/08
 _<__      __>_      __>_      ___>      __<_      ___>     01/09
 __<_      __|_      __>_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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