Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Jan 05 2004 06:03 pm

OK, my "Tracking the Market" page has been updated.  You can see the
charts I've been looking at by going to the URL's below, then clicking
on the "Ask Paul" tab on my Welcome page or my "On the Web" page, to
find the link.  There are a couple of edits and typos, but I guess it's
OK.  This year I've included a "long term" chart of data I've kept for
almost a decade--you ought to consider that before you go running with
the Bulls.

Everybody appears to be back to work on Wall Street.  It was a pretty
good day.  Prices were up all day, rising noticably near the close when
the big money managers did all their stuff.  My formulas called it an
Accumulation Day.  Volume was up markedly, 28% above average, but that's
an average which has been pulled down through the holidays.  Volume at
nearly 1600Ms would have been a reasonably active day thoughout last
year, and that's a positive sign anyhow.  By my measure Volatility is as
high as it has been since June, and the slump has lowered the spread for
price significance.  It used to be a price change of 25pts either way
was significant, but now it's down to 15pts.  That also made it easier
for this to be considered an Accumulation Day.  It just means major
investors were accumulating stocks.  That's not bad, but it's still just
one day.

Still, if I were a Momentum Player I'd be riding this extended "Santa
Claus Rally, but I'd be ready to jump ship on a dime.  Prices are
pushing the upper "Bollinger Band" higher, if you follow such things.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _>__      __>_      _<__      __|_      ___>     12/29
 __>_      _>__      __>_      <___      __|_      ___>     12/30
 __>_      _>__      __>_      _<__      __|_      ___>     12/31
 _|__      _>__      __>_      _<__      __|_      ___>     01/02
 __|_      __>_      __>_      ___<      __|_      ___>     01/05

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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