Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Jan 02 2004 06:02 pm

This morning seemed to start with a note of enthusiasm for the new year,
but volume didn't track prices.  I guess some of the traders had trouble
getting started.  By early afternoon prices were back to Tuesday &
Wednesday's levels in a big semicircular path, and basically didn't do
much for the rest of the day.  By the close volume began recovering from
the holidays, only -6% less than average.

This is January.  Remember the January Effect.  Last year it predicted
disaster, and it was wrong, thankfully.  So we ought to pay attention to
the mood of the market this month but not panic if it isn't overly
bullish.  Remember all the times last month I was saying prices were
moving higher on light volume, and cautioning that caused market
capitalization to become over extended?  The current line pencilled on
my charts is back at 1084.  I wouldn't be surprized to see it return to
that line and test it for support.  You'll soon be able to see it on my
website's "Tracking the Market" page.  I completed my first draft today.
It should be updated soon.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _|__      __>_      <___      __|_      ___>     12/26
 __>_      _>__      __>_      _<__      __|_      ___>     12/29
 __>_      _>__      __>_      <___      __|_      ___>     12/30
 __>_      _>__      __>_      _<__      __|_      ___>     12/31
 _|__      _>__      __>_      _<__      __|_      ___>     01/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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