Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Dec 22 2003 05:01 pm

Last week I said it would be important to see the followup volume after
the quad-witching to judge the nature of any Santa Claus Rally.  Well,
today's action was subdued.  It opened down, no doubt due to the
weekend's terrorist warning, but it soon recovered.  Then it sagged
through the morning and slowly recovered through the afternoon.  At the
close prices were up very modestly, but volume was -5% below average.
So I'd say last week's action +20pts on +10% or better average volume
was just the options and futures unwinding.

I was surprized to notice SCO was one of last Friday's big movers.
Shocked to see its Relative Strength was 99th percentile.  Who would
want to own a company whose major asset seems to be a lawsuit it should
lose?  Not me!

The Philly Fed reports on the mid-Atlantic region.  Thursday it reported
big gains in factory output.  (That's good, but primarily if it leads to
more employment.  An automated factory contributes few jobs and can be
packed up and moved.  In another report the Labor Department reported
new unemployment claims were down 17,000.)  I'd be a little wary of the
market over-reacting to the recent economic reports.  It tends to do
"straight-line extrapolations", assuming it's going to keep going the
same way forever.  The day of realization always comes.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _>__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___|     12/16
 __|_      _|__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___|     12/17
 __>_      _|__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___|     12/18
 _>__      _|__      __|_      ___>      __>_      ___|     12/19
 __>_      <___      __>_      _|__      __>_      ___|     12/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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