Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Dec 17 2003 06:12 pm

The market was basically flat, sagging a bit most of the day.  Volume
was up +8% overall.  Prices on the DJIA recovered a bit toward the end
with maybe a bit better than average volume.  The NASDAQ/OTC closed a
little lower again.  That's the sort of thing one expects of a maturing
market.

As you can see below, the trends of all my statistics are flat.  Now,
this could mean the trend is going through an inflection, changing
direction.  If you understand that I'm tracking Price Change not Price,
then maybe it's an apt general description of the market lately.
Volatility has been low, and volume light.

Be aware there may be some year-end tax loss selling, perhaps some
retirement money flowing into the market.  Fiscal year end for many
companies and even some mutual funds could also influence the market.
It isn't a time when we can entirely surrender to the holidays.

I haven't mentioned the January Effect yet to come.  Of course I don't
know what the market will do in January, and I don't really believe in
such indicators--predicting the whole year to come from just the first
month is just not credible--but to the extent other investors DO believe
it, it will probably exert some influence.  I'd be more likely to use
any dipsey-doodles to tactical advantage implementing my longer term
strategic plans.

I think maybe the best thing about the January to come might be an
opportunity to reevaluate the market and the economy as a whole with a
little better perspective.  I think this year we've been looking over
our shoulder a bit too much.  That Bear Market is over.  We need a
clearer look forward.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _|__      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___>     12/11
 __>_      _>__      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/12
 _>__      _>__      __|_      __<_      _|__      ___|     12/15
 __|_      _>__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___|     12/16
 __|_      _|__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___|     12/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... It did what? Well, it's not supposed to do that. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .