Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Dec 09 2003 05:33 pm

Right at the open this morning the DJIA took a run at 10K, peeked above
and backed off.  It tried once again about the time the Fed released its
announcement that it wasn't playing games, then, just like the NASDAQ a
few days ago, it ran away screaming.  Volume was marketly higher as
prices fell apart, +7% higher for the day.  The Advance:Decline ratio
was about 2:3.  It was a stampede for the door.

If you read my commentary yesterday you'll know I'm not a bit surprized.
IBD's commentators are desperately holding on to their viewpoint that
we've got a somewhat tired but still living Bull, but I'm not persuaded.
In my opinion the story of the past few months is one of investors
WANTING TO BELIEVE there is a new Bull, and over-bidding their hand once
again--"pricing for perfection".  The economy is improving, just not as
much as current prices suggest.  But neither am I pessimistic.

Active investors shouldn't be buying stocks when they're running up.
Leave that to the Momentum Players.  Active investors should be looking
for stocks in the early stages of a move, typically in the first "base
building" period after they've made a first move up, showing signs of
"investor appreciation."  This may give some of the stocks which have
run up an opportunity to do some "base building".  That should give us
better opportunities to buy and participate.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      >___      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___>     12/03
 __|_      >___      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     12/04
 _<__      >___      __|_      _<__      _<__      ___>     12/05
 __|_      >___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___>     12/08
 _|__      |___      __|_      __<_      _|__      ___>     12/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... It did what? Well, it's not supposed to do that. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .