Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Dec 02 2003 09:23 pm

Once again the market seemed to be OK, then at 2EST prices took a hit on
a spike in volume.  Today the market didn't recover.  Closing volume was
just over average.  It's little things like this that convince me we
have to wait to see hide or hair of the next Bull Market.  This tells me
investors are still a little "trigger happy".  They normally don't feel
that way in Bull Markets.

Yes, prices continue to slowly edge their way higher in fits and starts,
but in my opinion that is explained as an effect of the restricted
supply of stock caused by the low volume.  Major investors are holding
onto their current portfolios, after restructuring during the Bear
Market.  Money keeps arriving at retirement and mutual funds from
workers' payroll and 401K deductions, $25.5B into stock funds in
October.  It's got to go into the market.  It bids up the price of the
available stock.

Fortunately one component of the Institute of Supply Managers data
released yesterday is employment.  It has been less than 50, indicating
contracting employment since late 2000.  In the November data it has
risen to 51, not impressive but indicating increasing employment.  I've
mentioned before how important that is in my opinion.  Unfortunately, I
disagree with the President that his tax cuts, most postponed into
future administrations, are responsible.  I think it was Greenspan's
rate reductions and a final, grudging change of heart by America's
chicken-little CEO's that they no longer have to hunker down in
minimalist survival mode.  Let's keep an eye on the employment numbers.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      <___      __|_      _|__      __>_      ___<     11/25
 __>_      <___      __|_      _|__      __>_      ___<     11/26
 _>__      |___      __|_      <___      __>_      ___<     11/28
 __>_      >___      __|_      __<_      __>_      ___|     12/01
 _>__      >___      __|_      __<_      __>_      ___|     12/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... If ye dinae know what it meant, you wo'nae be embarrased. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .