Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Dec 01 2003 06:02 pm

Today the market resumed it's slow advance on subdued enthusiasm.  About
2EST something hit the news, the market sold off sharply on a spike in
volume, but it recovered by closing.  Volume returned to average, though
last week's "holiday-light" had pulled it down.

I call my commentary "Market Action", and I virtually never get into
discussing individual stocks.  And I'm not changing my opinion yet that
we haven't begun a new Bull Market--no matter what "they" say.  But I
have suggested that typically subsequent Bull Markets have different
leaders.  What I'm about to mention is NOT a stock recommendation!

Investor's Business Daily presents a list of it's 100 Top Stocks weekly.
IBD is also clear that these are NOT recommended Buys!  These are stocks
that have MADE strong moves, not ones predicted to make strong moves in
the FUTURE.  All of them have EPS ratings in the top 97-99% percentile
of NYSE/OTC stocks.  They also rate at least in the top 88% percentile
Relative Strength, a comparison of recent price action to the S&P 500,
representing investors' appreciation of their earnings.  I'm going to
list a few here.

Do you recognize any of these names?

China Yuchai, Schnitzer Steel, JB Sanfilippo, Ceradyne, Orleans
Homebuilders, Accredited Home Lender, Matrix Service, Fremont General,
Inter Parfums, Middleby, Nam Tai Electronics, SS&C Technologies,
Aluminum Co. of China, Bio Reference Labs, American Pharma.

Don't run out and buy those stocks!  I'm making the point that if you're
still investing in the names that made the headlines in the 90's, you're
more than a day late and a dollar short!  The only well known name from
those days still in the list is Yahoo, at 74th!

The theme of the 90's Bull Market was Technology and the Internet.  The
common theme from IBD's list now seems to be Building China, with a
short term counterpoint of Homebuilding because of recent record low
interest rates.  It will change as we go along, but get over the idea
that once great stocks are great stocks now.

"The times, they are a changing."

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      |___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     11/24
 __>_      <___      __|_      _|__      __>_      ___<     11/25
 __>_      <___      __|_      _|__      __>_      ___<     11/26
 _>__      |___      __|_      <___      __>_      ___<     11/28
 __>_      >___      __|_      __<_      __>_      ___|     12/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Custer had it coming ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .