Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Nov 28 2003 06:18 pm

OK, today was the half-day session.  Volume was -64% below average.
Prices were relatively unchanged.  That's a good thing.

Consider what happens when the market is in a significant move, up or
down, during a "holiday-light" trading session.  Just to make the
language simpler, let's assume the market is in a rally, and I'll leave
it to you to flip the scenario around if it's in a correction.  In the
absence of enough sellers and supply on the other side, buyer demand
drives prices into exaggerated moves.  The total investment in the
market that day is basically the average price change times the volume.
But the change in market value is the change times the total number of
shares outstanding!  The daily volume was already unnaturally light.

So a relatively small "investment in the market" makes everything in the
market look much better than it ought.  Don't get suckered in.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      |___      _|__      _|__      _|__      ___<     11/21
 __>_      |___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     11/24
 __>_      <___      __|_      _|__      __>_      ___<     11/25
 __>_      <___      __|_      _|__      __>_      ___<     11/26
 _>__      |___      __|_      <___      __>_      ___<     11/28

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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