Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Nov 21 2003 05:26 pm

If you drew a best-fit line through today's trading it would be flat.
Enthusiasm was similarly lackluster.  Volume was -8% below average.
There is no Bull Market here!  It's just a normal rebound from a
dreadfully over-sold position at the end of the Bear Market.

Never let yourself get persuaded into any extremist positions in the
Market--over time it will lose you money.  Diametrically opposed
positions are the realm of politics, where I don't think they're all
that much more successful in the long run than in investing.

Last year when we were bouncing off of lows in July and October I was
telling you to keep your head up out of the foxhole, and be polishing
your shopping list to acquire new allies you'd always thought were out
of your league, avoiding the dead, near-dead and walking wounded.  I
also told you to expect the next battle of the war to be fought with
fresh troups, not the war weary who mounted the last charge.  Many of
those were carried away on stretchers for serious recuperation.

Now is the time!  We are facing the proverbial "wall of worry", and it
is not just a mirage.  But the economy is improving, albeit with
different issues ahead of it.  And we have to change too.  Most of what
we learned during the last Bull Market isn't going to work now--neither
is what we learned in the Bear Market.  ("What goes up must come down."
"The bigger they are, the harder they fall.")  But we haven't forgotten
those lessons, nor should we.  They aren't wrong, per se, just creatures
of their time.  My suggestion is it's time to return to the tried and
true, traditional lessons of successful investing.  I think we need a
solid, well-crafted portfolio now.

What we have now is a "pause in the action."  If you're not ready now,
when?

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      |___      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___|     11/17
 _<__      |___      _|__      _|__      _<__      ___|     11/18
 __<_      |___      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___<     11/19
 __<_      |___      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___<     11/20
 __<_      |___      _|__      _|__      _|__      ___<     11/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  11/20/03 S&P:    1034
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -9

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Remember when unsafe sex was being caught in the act. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .