Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Nov 18 2003 06:35 pm

Well, the market consinuted to slip today.  As you can see my momentum
indicator slipped below the line today, meaning my timing indicator
popped a Sell signal.  This time it's a winner for 16pts.  Volume was
-5% below average.  It's been a while since the last signal, so if I was
disposed to act I'd use this one and ignore any whipsawing over the next
week or two.

So what does it mean?  Prices are slipping, down -25pts from apparent
resistance at 1059, but volume hasn't been above average but twice all
month, and those two times only by +2%.  This sort of drop would be
significant if it happened in one day, but this has been a consistent
slide over a week.  And with the subdued volume, clearly the big money
investors aren't afraid to be holding.

I've seen similar behavior that I'd interpret as "shaking the bushes to
scare the little birds out."  Besides the adversarial nature of the
football or rugby like game the Bulls and Bears play, I see the role of
the NYSE Floor Specialists and Traders as adversarial to investors like
me.  They have the ability and are allowed to move prices.  They also
buy and sell from their own inventory.  Typically they use the supply
and demand equation to create a moderate, controlled rise and fall.
They accumulate inventory at bargain prices when the public is
frightened by the lower prices, then restrict supply to drive prices
higher.  As prices rise and they are in profit, they begin to feed stock
into the demand carefully.  They will supply all the demand, and then
some.  They'll short the stock at the peaks to create excess supply and
drive prices back down, because they sold out at higher prices creating
the move and know this is the peak they are creating.  Ususally they're
successful, but sometimes the news goes against them or another
adversary buys up the supply.  This causes what's called a "short
squeeze."  They have to cover their shorts, creating more strong demand
and higher prices allowing the adversary to fill that demand at a profit
of his own.  That's the way the game is typically played.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      |___      __|_      _<__      __<_      ___|     11/12
 _|__      |___      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___|     11/13
 _>__      |___      __|_      _<__      _>__      ___|     11/14
 _<__      |___      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___|     11/17
 _<__      |___      _|__      _|__      _<__      ___|     11/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  11/18/03 S&P:    1034
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +16

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... I have to stop now. My fingers are getting hoarse! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .