Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Nov 17 2003 06:40 pm 

I warned you the market would be susceptible to news.  We're told the
weekend's terrorist actions and threats of al-Qaeda terrorism in Japan
spooked it.  It opened lower and by mid-day it was down 15pts, still not
enough to be significant on its own.  By the close it gained half back.
I know, you want to know about volume!  It was -3% below average.
However, the Advance:Decline ratio was more than 1:2 on the down side,
so the weakness was widespread even if it didn't cause any panic
selling.

So it's wise to be conservative in the market now, but it doesn't look
like the big money investors are frightened.  I'd like to see a Santa
Claus Rally as much as anyone else.  But maybe we should remember the
market is up 15% for the year at these levels.  No, I'm NOT going to
figure it from the March "Bottom"--to do so might imply an investor
could or should have known that was the point to sink it all in the
market.  A Santa Claus Rally just for its own sake might represent more
of the "irrational exhuberance" we're trying to get over.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      |___      __|_      _<__      _<__      ___|     11/11
 __<_      |___      __|_      _<__      __<_      ___|     11/12
 _|__      |___      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___|     11/13
 _>__      |___      __|_      _<__      _>__      ___|     11/14
 _<__      |___      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___|     11/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Alaska: Where men are men and women win the Iditarod. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .