Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Nov 14 2003 08:58 pm

The market rose sharply during the first half hour, then turned on its
heel and gave it all back, and then some, just as fast.  After lunch it
took a leap off the high-board.  Volume was just below average, but
during the day there were spikes in volume when the market was falling.

Today there were several releases of economic data.  As I said a few
days ago, I was expecting investors to be influenced by the news.  Boy,
howdy!  Still, while it clearly demonstrated the supply and demand
effect on prices, there was no evidence of overall panic selling.

The one thing that should be obvious is this is not the market of the
'90's!  Yes, we're up a lot since the Spring low.  But that should be
expected after the market was so terribly over-sold.  On the other hand,
we're not seeing obvious evidence investors are afraid the Bear is
returning--they're not cashing out and booking their profits, except on
the margins.

I've been expecting the market to return to more traditional behavior,
you know--"we make money the old fashioned way, we EARN it."  Investors
are paying attention to the economy, employment, and earnings.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      |___      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___|     11/10
 _<__      |___      __|_      _<__      _<__      ___|     11/11
 __<_      |___      __|_      _<__      __<_      ___|     11/12
 _|__      |___      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___|     11/13
 _>__      |___      __|_      _<__      _>__      ___|     11/14

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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