Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Nov 10 2003 08:02 pm

This morning prices continued to sag as they had Friday.  During mid-day
they tried to hang tough, but in late afternoon gave up the fight.  The
Bulls might take small solace in volume, -12% below average.  There was
little evidence of a sell-off.

It's no secret I subscribe to Investor's Business Daily.  Its editorial
bent is decidedly Conservative, big "C".  Today's front page has an
article complaining about Democratic filibusters.  In my opinion
politics is the art of the compromise, not trying to steamroll, thereby
solidifying your opposition.  I sincerely hate to say this, because this
direction doesn't further American ideals, but increasingly what I hear
from the Conservative wing sounds more like dictatorship than democracy.

Relevance?  Well, it wasn't covered in the article, but this is the sort
of mind-set that will lose you money in the market, big time!

Now it's one thing to be a contrarian.  Contrarian's can do well in the
market.  But they do it with insight, not by "arguing" with the market.
It's been a while since I mentioned investing "style", but "value
investing" is right down their alley.  There's a big difference between
owning stock in a solid, reliable company with good products and
management creating superior earnings which isn't in the news and the
Street's or media's current darling, and a "flash in the pan" or "has
been" that just has no where to go anytime soon.

Nor am I suggesting one become a short-term trader, swaying in every
passing breeze that ruffles the market.  You have to be right on far
more decisions, not the least of which is whether the market's current
darlings really have legs!  That is more likely to make your broker rich
than you.

No, I'm saying you have to recognize the market is inherently a
democratic institution, SMALL "d"!  In spite of the inequalities between
Main Street investors and the big money institutional investors, in
spite of the "marketing" and the outright scoundrels, the market always
represents where investors are willing to "put their money where their
mouth is".  As such, the market is always right--you, only once in a
while.  So you have to adapt to the market, not expect it to be the
other way around.  You will make money if you understand the way the
market makes its judgements, as opposed to the daily "noise".  You will
lose money if you insist that your own judgements are always right.
Over all, the market values businesses that are successful and make
money.  In the fluid environment of the real world, the success of all
businesses represents a moving target for investors.  You have to be
able to adapt to be a successful investor, and adaptability means
self-inspection.

I once heard Joan Baez (regardless of her politics, she does have a
better voice than most modern singers) end a concert with the
admonition, "Stay alive, stay scared."  Not bad advice for investors,
that.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      |___      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     11/04
 _|__      >___      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     11/05
 __|_      >___      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___|     11/06
 __|_      >___      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___|     11/07
 _<__      |___      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___|     11/10

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Did you expect mere proof to sway my opinion? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .